AILSA CHANG, HOST:
Scientists are warning that the world may be on the verge of a record-breaking El Nino. That's a weather pattern that's linked to rising global temperatures. El Nino typically begins along the Pacific coast of South America, and right now, Lima, the capital of Peru, is already experiencing unusually warm conditions, as Simeon Tegel reports.
(SOUNDBITE OF OCEAN WAVES)
SIMEON TEGEL, BYLINE: Trapped in a thermal inversion between the Andes and the Humboldt Current of Antarctic waters welling up in the Pacific, Lima normally has one of the most stable and predictable climates on planet Earth. But not this year.
FABRICIA LAURA: Feeling the ocean so warm and being able to swim in this time of the year and sunbathing - it's amazing. Definitely, it's something odd. It's weird.
TEGEL: Fabricia Laura is bodyboarding without a wet suit and enjoying Lima's Redondo Beach. Peru's sprawling capital of 10 million may be 12 degrees south but, right now, should be cool, gray and overcast. The Pacific here is typically frigid this time of year. As Laura puts it...
LAURA: Your joints would hurt as soon as you approach or feel the water on your feet here in the shore. So yeah. For me, it's quite concerning.
SEVERINE FOURNIER: Peru, Ecuador are usually ground zero for El Nino, and this is what is happening right now.
TEGEL: Severine Fournier is a climate scientist at NASA.
FOURNIER: There is this huge, warm of blob water in the ocean that traveled from the Western Pacific and that is now soaking the coast of South America.
TEGEL: Fournier says the latest predictions show a 63% chance that a major El Nino will develop in the next couple of months. Some are already calling it a Godzilla El Nino - possibly the most intense on record.
FOURNIER: El Nino is happening on top of a lot of human-caused warming already. A lot of the impacts are on steroids.
TEGEL: That could wreak havoc on the global food supply, on top of the economic disruption already caused by the war with Iran. Peru has the world's largest anchovy catch, supplying around 40% of the world's fish meal, a key input for animal feed. But the government has just suspended the fishery to prevent the anchovy population collapsing.
(SOUNDBITE OF OCEAN WAVES)
MARTEL VENTURA: (Speaking Spanish).
TEGEL: There are hardly any fish, says Martel Ventura, an angler on this Lima beach who has spent hours here without catching anything. The fish prefer colder water, he says. More hot water rising to the surface of the Pacific would transfer more energy into the atmosphere. That could mean drought in Australia and parts of Asia, flooding here in Peru and heavier winter rains across parts of the United States. That will benefit some farmers but could wipe out others' harvests.
For NPR News, this is Simeon Tegel in Lima, Peru.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.